Could NIL threaten Germany's wildly successful 6+6 rule? It certainly is devastating Europe
German basketball leaders expect the exodus of youngsters to US colleges to massively impact the game - a problem seen throughout Europe. FIBA have recognized the problem but how much can they do?
One unsung hero in Germany’s rise to their title at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 is the 6+6 foreigner regulation. Dating back to original league reforms more than 15 years ago the rule provided German talent the opportunity to develop and excel at the pro level, leading in part to the strong success of the national team.
The easyCredit BBL’s core tool for development in Germany however has come under attack, according to a variety of leaders in the country who believe NIL will put 6+6 under pressure and could have massive implications in the game.
But it is not just Germany that is affected by the massive influx of NIL money in college. Everywhere in Europe, basketball leaders are trying to get their heads wrapped around the issue and how they can deal with it. Deal with it because they really cannot combat it. NIL money only four years into its existance is already on par with most clubs in the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague.
Uncertainity still reigns in many regards in terms of Europeans heading to college, which on its merits is entirely understandable. With the money being thrown around, it is actually finanically irresponsible for the players not to go to the US for the financial benefit.
What will end up happening? It’s anybody’s guess. The basketball world governing body FIBA has recognized the problem and will try to address it. Their hope is to somehow convince the NCAA to join its jurisdiction in the FIBA system. But first off, FIBA has no leverage to make the NCAA do that - it would almost be more of an act of free will by the NCAA. And secondly, it’s questionable if the NCAA can even do it. That is because these deals are NIL contracts - money provided for athletes’ Name, Image and Likeness. They are not performance-based contracts.
This issue hangs over the European basketball world like a dark cloud. And there is no sun in the forecast for the near future.
For those unaware of what NIL is … “Name Image Likeness” refers to the rights of college athletes starting in 2021 to profit from their personal brand - allowing them to earn money through endorsements, sponsorships, appearances and social media, without jeopardizing their amateur status.
The money that colleges started dishing out to players paled in comparison that anything European clubs could even fathom offering their players. Large masses of players have been receiving yearly NIL payments in six figures and some throughout Europe even earned 1+ million dollars.
With upwards of 350 colleges in Division 1 having cash to spend, even more Germans and Europeans have started to leave for the United States.
German BBL CEO Stefan Holz: “Worst fears have now become reality.”
“Unbelievable salaries. There's no two ways about it. If I were young and got an offer like that, of course I’d take it,” said German BBL CEO Stefan Holz. “A real talent drain, a real exodus. The worst fears have now become reality.”
For those keeping track of the Germans bailing their homeland for the homeland of basketball, it’s hard not getting depressed. The top three finishers in the 2024-25 Top German U22 player award - winner Sanada Fru of Basketball Löwen Braunschweig, FIT/One Würzburg Baskets’ Hannes Steinbach and Johann Grünloh of RASTA Vechta - will be with NCAA teams next season.
They will be joining the likes of Mathieu Grujicic, Davi Remagen, Jacob Patrick, Elias Rapieque, Amon Dörries, Dominykas Pleta, Antonio Dorn and Martin Kalu.
And there is no end in sight of the wave of this summer’s departures as colleges still have money budgeted and will be watching the youth national team EuroBaskets in the summer to find more players.
And that list will be added to the Germans who are already playing college basketball including Michael Rataj, Christoph Tilly, Simonas Lukosius, Nils Machowski, Jacob Ensminger, Joshua Bonga, Bent Leuchten and Rikus Schulte. Other Germans in the United States are Christian Anderson, Eric Reibe and Keenan Gardner.
6+6 under pressure
Would all of those players have certain jobs in the easyCredit BBL? No. But many of them would help the Bundesliga clubs fulfill the 6+6 regulation, which requires at least six German players on the 12-man roster.
That led league boss Holz to say: “6 + 6 will come under pressure.”
Holz believes it could become difficult for teams to recruit six Germans who can play in the BBL. And he is not alone in the thought.
“The clubs firmly decided to bet on their own young kids. Having these guys playing those minutes took years and years for the organizations to be convinced that this is worth it. And now everything is shaking,” said ALBA BERLIN sports director Himar Ojeda.
His ratiopharm ulm counterpart Thorsten Leibenath said the departures will lead to the decrease in the overall quality of the German players. At the same time, the salaries of the German players who are still in Germany will increase because the competition for those players is higher.
“This will put pressure on the entire league — and on the 6 + 6 rule as well,” Leibenath said.
This whole discussion about 6+6 pains Robert Wintermantel. The current BBL head of sports and finance was one of the key figures in implementing the rule back in 2009 with 6+6 taking effect in 2012.
“Historically, I’ve been absolutely opposed to changing this rule. Of course, there are now considerations in that direction — not from my side, but naturally people are bringing it up. And I think rightly so. If we truly have a problem and not enough young German players are coming through, then it’s certainly an issue. But fundamentally, I’m a staunch advocate of this rule.”
Instead of high quality German youngsters helping fill up the 6+6 quota, BBL clubs could be forced to look to older players who may not usually get BBL jobs. That will certainly see ProA teams being raided as the second league clubs are required to have two Germans on the court at all times.
And there are not a lot of youngsters in the ProA. According to figures by Christoph Nicol, the BBL saw 4.83 percent of minutes played by U22 players in the regular season. The total U22 figure was 8.35 percent in the ProA - 5.96 percent if you take away RASTA Vechta’s farmteam.
Dropping down to the ProB, Nicol’s figures for the regular season have a total percent of 32.31 for U22 Germans. That number is broken down into 57.45 percent for the 11 farmteams of BBL clubs and 16.04 percent of non farmteam sides.
FC Bayern Munich gave U22 players 80.02 percent of the minutes with other top development teams being Ludwigsburg (75.83 percent), Würzburg (68.21 percent) and Ulm percent (65.92 percent).
Coming back to NIL, Ojeda believes the exodus will drastically impact the ProB as well. The trio of Anton Nufer (519 minutes), Dorian Grosber (494) and Amon Dörries (484) played near 1,500 minutes for LOK Bernau in the ProB, and if they all leave for college (Dörries has already committed to a US college), Ojeda will have to make up those minutes in the ProB with other players. And the ALBA official believes the ProB will get drastically younger as clubs are forced to play more 17 year olds as many 19-year-olds are not around.
Leibenath believes the number of players heading to college will almost double compared to last year — maybe even more.
“Across the entire professional sector of German basketball, there will simply be a lack of good players in the coming years. And that, of course, weakens the domestic market,” the Ulm leader said.
“The current NIL deals present a general problem for international basketball, not ‘just’ for German basketball clubs. Clubs and federations invest large sums over many years in developing young talent, and currently receive no financial compensation when players leave for U.S. colleges,” said German Basketball Federation spokesman Christoph Büker.
“The combination of academics and basketball was already interesting and attractive even without NIL deals. Now, with NIL money, the NCAA has emerged as another financially powerful ‘player’ in the basketball landscape.”
Germany already losing top end talent … now losing prospects
The high number of Germans being recruited to colleges shows that American coaches respect the work done by German youth systems. But the German clubs have also been doing a good job improving players who are already pros.
The easyCredit BBL is considered a stepping stone league where the best players are often snatched up by clubs in other countries who can pay more. Six of the last seven regular season Most Valuable Players - Will Cummings, Marcos Knight, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, TJ Shorts and Otis Livingston - left the league after winning the award with only 2021 MVP Jaleen Smith staying in Berlin.
“We’ve always been in the middle of the food chain, but maybe now we’re in the upper third. It’s completely clear that we lose players to the EuroLeague or NBA. But now we’re also losing Germany’s top prospects,” Holz said.
Germany’s reliance on U22 players at 4.84 percent in the BBL was solid when compared with other top leagues. Italy’s Serie A only had 3.12 percent of the minutes played by U22 players; the Spanish ACB through the first 31/32 rounds had 2.55 percent time for U22 players; and the French ProA had a strong 8.62 percent for the whole league.
What can be done?
Right now, unfortunately very little. Clubs can write college buy-outs into their contracts with young players - and hope the colleges do pay them. Or that clubs will get a fixed percentage of the player’s NIL money. Clubs could also work closer with the players to then build up connections to colleges and feed their players into specific college - all the while securing an NIL cut.
The alarm bells are ringing loudly throughout Europe - with Euroleague Basketball CEO Paulius Motiejunas doing it publicly way back in May 2024.
"What is happening in sports is completely turning upside down. You see how the NCAA is changing it with the salaries. I know the salaries players make in the NCAA, and what they're paying now is completely nuts and breaks the market. There is no motivation for the [European] clubs to keep growing young players. But this is something on the table for FIBA as well," Motiejunas said at an official EuroLeague press conference at the Final Four in Berlin.
“It is the wild west of who wins and in which direction it goes. I don't think it's good for the players because getting these salaries at 18 is a big risk. Only strong personalities can handle this money and popularity. I hope the storm will blow over, and we will think of ways to keep growing good European players.”
Europe’s most influential agent Misko Raznatovic highlighted the concern of Europeans in college in the U.S. now commanding higher salaries than many EuroLeague players.
“A lot of players from Europe will have contracts in excess of a million in college this year, and as you know, a small number of players in the EuroLeague teams have contracts greater than that amount,” Raznatovic told MozzartSport.
“Let's not kid ourselves, this is a real cause for concern since the answer is largely out of our control,” Philippe Ausseur, president of the French first division league LNB told BeBasket.com. “A regulatory response is needed, which will involve dialogue with FIBA and probably the NCAA, to avoid this plundering.”
Here is just a sampling of the French talents who have already jumped ship for colleges in the United States this season: Ilias Kamardine, Roman Domon, Wilson Jacques, Clarence Massamba, Yohann Sissoko, Paul Mbiya and Mathis Courbon. Others apparently contemplating the move include: Illian Pietrus, Brice Dessert, Nathan De Sousa, Maxence Lemoine, Alexandre Bouzidi and Mohamed Diakite.
Italian LBA league president Umberto Gandini told Tuttosport: “It’s certainly worrying … There is no protection for clubs.”
Italian talents such as Achille Lonati, Luigo Suigo, Maikcol Perez and former Barcelona talent Dame Sarr are all heading for the US as are Sidi Gueye and Andrej Kostic among dozens more. Every day seems to have another social media post from a solid talent announcing a commitment to a US college.
According to Carro Funes, the CEO of FairPlay Agency and Octagon Basketball Europe Senior Director, in a Sports Illustrated article, many teams are rethinking the viability of youth programs. The report said some Spanish ACB clubs spend roughly $500,000 annually to run their youth programs. And many players are leaving early for America and the clubs are not getting a return on investment from contracts with EuroLeague teams for example. “Teams are saying if this is going to be the future, what are we doing,” Funes was quoted as saying.
The real solution most likely needs to come from FIBA.
Basketball’s world governing body did recognize the problem and created an expert group to look into NCAA and young players. FIBA Secretary General Andreas Zagklis addressed the Mid-Term Congress in mid-May, saying “We need to acknowledge that (NCAA basketball) is no longer and has stopped being an academic experience primarily for the athletes. The colleges in NCAA are every day closer to being commercial entities, professional clubs, and that is challenging our eco-system for the simple reason that our eco-system is based on principle: that you can transfer as long as contracts are respected. Agreements must be respected.”
Zagklis said a letter of clearance - or however they want to name it - must be introduced. FIBA will formally talk with the NCAA and look for a solution.
“We cannot stay with our hands still, and we cannot stay just as observers in this. FIBA has an institutional duty to protect its members and at the same time it has an institutional duty to help the development of its players,” he said.
One major problem is that FIBA has no leverage over the NCAA, which will do anything in its power to admit or confirm that its players are professionals or employees - which is something letters of clearance could legally establish.
The situation could still get dramatically worse as one agent told TTC that a European player has been placed at a US high school with NIL money.
Yes, there is NIL money in high schools as well. Sure, this is the upper end, but it gives you a hint of what kind of money is out there. On3.com estimates players’ NIL valuation - based among other things on how much following the players have on social media.
AJ Dybantsa will be heading to Brigham Young University next season after which he is currently expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. On3 estimated his value at 4.1 million dollars. Tyron Stokes has been estimated with a value of 1.6 million dollars while Brandon McCoy and Cameron Boozer both have valuations of 1.5 million dollars. For high school seniors.
Below is On3.com’s listing of the Top 10 evaluations of college players.
What type of money are we talking about?
For thost trying to figure out what type of money we are talking about, let’s look at some of the numbers out there.
The Inside Carolina site reported that University of North Carolina’s payroll for its roster this up-coming 2025-26 season has surpassed a mark of $14 million. That would be more than triple what the Tar Heels spent on their roster last season.
Exact figures are hard to determine with the 247Sports news portal saying as of April 11, 2025 there are at least eight teams that will have 10+ million dollar rosters next season. CBS Sports meanwhile wrote on April 17, 2025 a variety of sources have that number being 10 colleges in the 10 million dollar club: Arkansas, BYU, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, North Carolina, St. John's and Texas Tech.
The article continued that a number of other programs are sitting at 8 million dollars: including Auburn, Connecticut, Florida, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Miami, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, USC, Villanova and Virginia.
Here is a list of the programs that are estimated to have spent the most money on transfers for this season - NOT the whole roster - as of May 15, 2025 - topped by Indiana with 10.1 million dollars.
Those are all figures for the players budgets. Let’s compare that to the 18 clubs in the EuroLeague. BasketNews managed to put together a list of budgets for the 2024-25 season and the North Carolina Tar Heels would stack up pretty well with 14 million dollars, which is about 12.3 million euros.
NOTE - the net value for players/coaches salaries is on the right.
NBA star Anthony Davis: NIL takes away from the integrity of the college game
NBA superstar Anthony Davis weighed in on the state of the college game with all the impact of NIL, saying it has taken a hit from all the money.
“It kinda takes away from the game a little bit because of—and I'm not hating—it takes away from the integrity in the sense of players are only going to certain schools because of the money,” he told Sports Illustrated.
“College basketball is still competitive, but the recruitment of it has kinda gotten a little wacky, especially when player can leave and enter the (transfer) portal and go anywhere. It just gets a little tricky,” Davis said. “The coaches either a) have to be more strategic with their recruiting, or b) if you don't have a lot of money for NIL, that kind of takes away your school, your program, as far as being a top recruiter for some of these players.”
NIL and the free movement of players have made it difficult to develop a culture, with Davis saying: “That kind of goes out the window, in my opinion.”
NBA Draft less attractive
Another impact the massive NIL money has made is the number of players declaring for the NBA Draft.
The NBA announced on April 29 that 106 players had filed as early entry candidates for the 2025 NBA Draft. That was already the lowest number of early-entrants since 2015. And it was down more than two-thirds from the peak of 363 in 2021 - just before the NCAA’s NIL era began.
That number lowered drastically a month later on May 30 as the NBA announced 50 of those 106 players had withdrawn their names, leaving just 56 names as early entry candidates. Under NCAA rules, in order to retain college basketball eligibility, college players must withdraw by May 28. The remaining players still have the option of withdrawing by June 15.
It’s not hard to imagine why so many players are withdrawing if they can earn so much money through NIL teams in college.
House vs NCAA settlement - no resolution of international players
Much has been discussed about the recent House vs NCAA settlement which essentially ends the era of amateurism with colleges now being allowed to pay the student-athletes - whereas until now they have received the money from separate NIL collectives.
FOR MORE DETAILS on that - read this summary of the settlement.
One of the main issues left unresolved - and actually probably most important for this article - is the status of international players. The subject was not included in any of the lawsuits resolved in the settlement.
The athletes are in US schools under a student F1-visa, which prevents them from doing certain work activities. The issue for some time was a major sticking point until NIL collectives found ways around regulations and got the international players their NIL money.
It was never really fully addressed by the US government. Some believe that the matter must be decided by the US Congress. But with no action recently on any legislation, it is unclear what the future holds.
Also unclear is who exactly would rule if athletes are in violation of their visa status and how or when that would come. One possibility is that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would make those visa determinations. And one source informed TTC that if an individual is caught in violation of their student visa in the United States and deported, they would be red-flagged by US authorities for five years.
College players better save their money
So where do we go from here? It’s anybody’s guess what the future holds. European clubs will certainly re-evaluate their entire youth development system.
One fascinating aspect of all this will be next off-season - before the 2026-27 season - when the first group of college players, especially Americans, finish their collegiate careers and look for jobs in Europe.
After four years of earning six-figures, those players will hear offers from European clubs - even EuroCup or Basketball Champions League teams - and say: “Sure, I’ll take that for a month.” And then reality hits when they hear back: “No, that is for the season.”
Will we see players just accept less money and remember the good ole days? Will we see a trend of more players retire from the game early? Will we see other leagues around the world pop up and offer more money - United Arab Emirates for example?
Or maybe some of these higher level earners actually try to buy into European clubs - kind of NBA players becoming club owners or stake-holders in their former university.
No white flag
When asked what message he has for fans of the German Bundesliga, the CEO Stefan Holz answered: “Raise the white flag? No, of course not. We somehow have to adapt to the situation, though we don’t yet have the solution. We’re relying on systemic solutions. But the next generation will come - the talent pool doesn’t seem to be drying up. A new generation will emerge and excite us.”
And everything will eventually be okay. Let’s just all tell ourselves that.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to Taking The Charge. All you have to do is click that button, and you won’t miss any posts.