Prognostified - What could Team USA look like at 2028 Olympics
The 2024 Olympics just ended and LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant carried United States to the gold medal - in their mid to late 30s. What could the USA team look like at the LA 2028 Games?
The 2024 Olympics just ended and LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant carried United States to the gold medal - in their mid to late 30s. What could the USA team look like at the LA 2028 Games?
Here a guest writing about the future of USA Baskeball looking ahead to the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics by Chris Urtz.
Watching the US men’s Olympic team and very much enjoying this edition, I found myself realizing that we are watching the fading embers of the fire that was the last 20 years of American basketball. We are almost certainly witnessing some of our favorite heroes (and to some, villains) put to a close to their international careers.
Those players that exist as either a name or an abbreviation. LeBron. Steph. KD.
There’s also Jrue Holiday, a defensive menace & 2-time NBA champion. And what about Anthony Davis & Joel Embiid? Although I can’t say for certain if their time as an US international player is at an end - aging bigs with an injury history typically don’t have long shelf-lives of top performance. And if I throw in Derrick White, who is currently 30 years old, we are looking at a turnover of over half our roster when we arrive at the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.
Which leads me to the thought: What WOULD the 2028 US Men’s National Team look like? How would it compare to US Olympic teams in the past? Could it possibly live up to the Dream Team, or the very revered 2008 Men’s Team, or for that matter, this year’s team? Well, far be it from me to stand idly by and not try to give it some context.
So …. let’s begin.
My first thought when I started fleshing this idea out was simple – how could you POSSIBLY predict a 12-man team, 4 years out, when there are SOOOO many variables that can occur in that time.
Does the player suffer debilitating injuries that saps their talent? Does the player experience a life-changing event? (Just as some examples. A bad run-in with drugs as with Roy Tarpley, or the gun issues currently hounding Ja Morant, or the more mundane yet still present challenges of dealing with a messy divorce.) What is their current playing situation? Are they on a title-contending team? Or are they plying their trade with a bottom-feeding lottery team? And most importantly – do they even feel the necessary patriotism required to give up their only few months of break?
For most of these questions, only the individual players themselves could have an answer. And heck – they may answer those questions differently in 2028 then as they would right now.
Therefore, the exercise of picking this team, as one can see, is no simple task. How can I even start this thing. Well, let’s look at history. That could give us some direction.
With all the current discussions about how this Olympic team bears resemblances to the Dream Team, I decided to look at all of the previous editions of the US Olympic Men’s National Teams since 1992. And in doing so, I have established four sets of criteria to help guide my selections.They are:
1) What is the overall age of the different teams? (I thought based on the ages of Lebron & Steph & KD, this had to be the oldest team of all time. Turns out – it is.)
2) What is the overall age breakdown of each team? How many truly young guys, like Anthony Edwards in this team, are there? How many “senior citizen” players are there? And so on.
3) From Olympic year to Olympic year, how many players are willing to give up their summers to return to consecutive squads?
4) How do deep runs into the NBA playoffs (semi-finals or finals) affect the players joining these teams? Is there an adverse effect where players have “had enough basketball”?
Based on those above thoughts, here are 4 charts to help show what my “guidelines” yielded.
The Dream Team (1992) and Dream Team 2 (1996) were on average, the oldest teams that the USA had sent to the Olympics prior to this year’s version. (Average age in 2024: 30.1 years old. Average ages in 1992 & 1996, respectively: 28.7 & 29.5.)
If I disregard these older “super” teams, the average age “sweet spot” seems to be roughly between 26 & 28 years old. (The disastrous 2004 team starts making a whole lot more sense once one realizes how inexperienced the overall team was.)
Next, here is a chart of the overall age make-up of each team.
Again, looking at Anthony Edwards specifically, how many players on each US Olympic national team were on their first NBA contract? (This contract normally would run (for most lottery picks) until their ages 22 or 23 seasons.) These would be the “Christian Laettner”s of the original Dream Team. Some will have a bigger influence than others, but generally they are there to “learn” and get seasoned for potential future international play.
Following that, I then broke the groups down into 3 more brackets. (24-27, 28-31 & then 32 and above.) This at least allows a way to see how the teams are built in an overall sense of experience.
Based on this data, I get a rough idea of how many of each age of player I should have on a team.
- 23 & under – 1 to 2 players
- 24-27 – 3 to 5 players
- 28-31 – 3 to 5 players
- 32 & above – 1 to 2 players
Now let’s look at how many players participated in at least 2 consecutive Olympic games.
With the obvious exception of this year’s squad and the original Dream Team, the other 2 squads that yield more than 2 returnees were Dream Team 2 in 1996 (the OTHER team that yielded 11 of 12 players that would go on to join the NBA Hall of Fame) and the 2012 team that saw Deron Williams, Chris Paul, LeBron, Carmelo Anthony & Kobe Bryant all return from the Beijing Olympics.
In general, these teams with so many returnees (as well as the original Dream Team) are generally considered to be the most beloved versions of the Olympic squads. Given the current batch of NBA players and given the large number of players that are currently hailing from countries other than the US, it’s hard to envision that the next squad will be so memorable. So, I am aiming to include three returning players in my team.
Finally, the effect of late-season NBA play. Here is a chart showing the number of players on each team that played in either the semifinals or finals of the NBA Playoffs.
In general, winning late in the season helps a specific type of player get into the squad. Specifically, the very good to great role player. Consider this year’s squad – Jrue Holiday & Derrick White turn in amazing playoff performances into a spot on the Olympic squad. They are by no means top 25 players in the NBA, but as these are players that can operate without constantly needing the ball in their hands, their inclusion is paramount for the overall team unity. (There are only so many touches to go around in any game.)
I’ve also loosely used a player’s injury history in forming this team up. This will be the unfortunate reason that Zion Williamson doesn’t show up here. I want nothing more than to see him in a US Olympic uniform. But I am just so worried that either his knees or ankles will go before the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028 that I just can’t include him here.
So, based on all the above criteria, here is the squad I have put together:
PG – Kyrie Irving (2028 age: 36) – I know. Can you really trust him? Even more than Zion’s injury history? Well, probably not. But he does seem to be on an 18-month rehabilitation of his character, and he IS one of the most beloved players by other players. They will need a senior mentor on this team, and his game should age well enough that he can be a contributing player to the squad.
PG – De’Aaron Fox (2028 age: 30) – This will most likely be their floor general. He brings very good defense to the table, and his overall speed will be an asset to this squad.
PG/SG – Jalen Suggs (2028 age: 27) – Here is a 3 & D guy in the mold of Derrick White. (Granted, his 3-point shooting only really peaked this year, but he’s only been in the league for 3 seasons, so the overall trend is a positive one.) Is it possible that an Orlando team in four years could make a late run into the playoffs? This guy thinks so. So, to paraphrase from Shoresy –Suggs, you ready? Good, ‘cause you’re going!
SG – Anthony Edwards (2028 age: 26) – The first of 2 returning shooting guards. Honestly, I worry that he will return here. I think in four years from now, he’ll probably be so busy getting close to winning championships & making possible films that he may not have time for this. That said, he is also an insane competitor, and in 2028, this will REALLY be his team. And I don’t think he can turn that down.
SG – Devin Booker (2028 age: 31) – The second of the two returning shooting guards, I also don’t know if he will want to be back as this would be his third consecutive Olympic team. Still, given his overall level of health, he could eye getting 3 or 4 gold medals onto his eventual Hall of Fame resume. So, I have him returning.
SF – Brandon Miller (2028 age: 25) – This is absolutely a stretch, to be sure. But given the strong early comparisons to Paul George, if he were to maintain a similar pace stat-wise, that would put Brandon in strong standing to be the “breakout guy” from the 2028 Olympic squad. Sohe’s going.
SF – Herbert Jones (2028 age: 29) – Our second 3 & D specialist. Given his role in New Orleans as the super 3 & D guy, he would fit in perfectly as the guy we need to tackle one of the tougher defensive assignments on a nightly basis. And an overall locker room positive.
SF – Cooper Flagg (2028 age: 21) – Here’s this edition’s version of Anthony Edwards. Being part of the Olympic Select squad, he’s already shown some ability to hang with the best the game has to offer. I don’t know if whatever team he lands on will be as advanced as Minnesota was this past season, but at this point it almost feels like a lock he will be on this squad.
PF – Jayson Tatum (2028 age: 30) – The last of our return players. Boston’s squad should still be going strong here in my opinion, and Tatum will by then be one of the five best players in the game. Hard to believe given his performance in this year’s Olympics, but everybody can have a bum stretch of games. And given he’s played so poorly, I feel he wouldn’t mind washing that bad taste out of his mouth by coming back and being one of the 2 or 3 most important guys in LA.
PF – Paolo Banchero (2028 age: 25) – Again, I’m feeling the Orlando train. And if they DO get late into the playoffs, Paolo will be the main reason. He already suited up for us in last year’s World Cup, and we will need his beef to help keep opponents honest in the paint.
C – Chet Holmgren (2028 age: 26) – This is one of the few guys that I think is an absolute lock for 2028. We do not have much post depth coming down the US pipeline. (It’s one of the reasons we have so many international bigs dominating the game now.) We will need his almost-KG level of competitiveness to help corral all of those bigs we will run up against - including France’s superstar Victor Wembanyama. As a bonus, it will continue the international rivalry that started back when Wembanyama and Holmgren met up in the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2021 Final . And I am confident that OKC at that point will be well in play for an NBA championship.
C – Myles Turner (2028 age: 32) – Our second “senior” player, his defense and outside shooting will be needed here. And given how well he acquitted himself in the 2019 FIBA World Cup, he should be at that right point in his career where he can contribute and still be willing to play in a team system.
So, to quickly recap the numbers:
Average Team Age for 2028: 28.2 yrs old (just outside the window I projected)
- Under 24 yrs old – 1 player
- 24-27 yrs old – 5 players
- 28-31 yrs old – 4 players
- 32 yrs and up – 2 players
Returning players – 3
Players making deep runs in the playoffs – 5 (Edwards, Suggs, Tatum, Banchero & Holmgren)
Will I be vilified for not finding spots for virtually any of the other players available? Sure. I just wanted to take a stab at giving a realistic idea as to how the future team could look. Let’s see how close I get in four years.
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