Review of first two days at FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2022
Here a review of the first two days at the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2022
We have hit the “Pause” button on the action at the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2022 and this seems like a great chance to reflect on the first two days of the tournament: looking at months and months of research and writing and where my coverage and predictions have been right on and where I have missed the boat. Who has surprised, who has disappointed? Which players have emerged? A lot of time was invested in covering this event so let’s review what’s happened so far.
I never liked saying the third day of the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup - or whenever the first day without games has come (there have been different schedules in the past) - was a “day off” because covering these tournaments there was never a day without work. While writing this, most of my rest day work is just about done - a little spoiler, it’s a feature about Cooper Flagg of the United States - so it seemed like a good opportunity to write out some thoughts on the first two days of the competition. So, let’s get rolling.
France most impressive of USA plus 2a and 2b
The readers of the U17 World Cup Power Rankings know that I ranked five-time undefeated champions United States number one followed by Spain and then France - but Spain as 2a and 2b. It still seems a certainty that the team that will hoist the trophy on July 10 in Malaga will come from that trio, but thus far France have been the most impressive of those teams. But let’s go in order of the Power Rankings.
USA teams always struggle early on in these tournaments - Greece with Georgios Papagiannis and Vassilis Charalampopulous lost by only 10 points in the first game in 2014 - and this group is having issues for a bigger reason than those in the past. We’ll get to that in a second. Of course, Lebanon never challenged the Americans in the opener, which came two weeks after the United States opened their training camp with 34 players. Slovenia were pesky for about 15 minutes before the Americans said, wait, why are you guys still in this game and unleashed a 20-4 surge to put the game to bed for good. For those who don’t know their U17 World Cup history, Lebanon and Slovenia are playing in the competition for the first time. So it’s not like the Americans were facing the toughest teams.
That being said, we were able to see a bit of United States in trouble in their two friendlies played June 28 and 29 against Lithuania and Spain, respectively. Back to the aforementioned issue, the Americans coaching staff included just four players from the team at the FIBA U16 Americas Championship 2021. That means eight of the players had never played a FIBA game in the past and three of the players were 15 years old.
In the two friendlies, Lithuania lost by only 10 points and Spain missed a shot at the end of the game to win the game. That being said, American teams always get better over the course of the event - and that will be the same in this case. This next idea is the by-product of the unfortunate fact of me not being in Spain to cover the event but only reporting from home. At least from afar, there is a perceived lack of the dominant aura that usually surrounds USA teams. It must be said, that might come from the media I am consuming and is not actually a true situation. Having watched closely Spain’s battle with the Americans definitely gave that feeling fuel.
Still, USA are the heavy favorites and the rest of teams are looking to avoid the Americans as long as they can in the knockout stage. Sharman White has taken over the reigns as head coach from Don Showalter and the Americans still play a stifling and suffocating defense, which is designed to come up with steals to create easy points and make the halfcourt game as little necessary as possible. The Americans still have an incredible array of weapons - mainly from the outside and slashing. One way they could get beat is if they can’t force turnovers and really have a nightmare from long range.
Spain were given the 2a spot in the Power Rankings, mainly because I trusted Spain playmaker Sergio De Larrea to handle the USA pressure more than Illan Pietrus of France. And that was the case in the Spain-USA friendly. But the first two games have given me pause in this consideration - not that De Larrea can’t handle the task, but more if he will be given the job and that Pietrus might get it done, but more on the French playmaker shortly.
Spain’s loss to Lithuania in the opening game was a real surprise - especially watching Lithuania erase a 14-point deficit with an immediate 17-0 run. It’s hard to believe any team with the likes of De Larrea, Aday Mara, Izan Almansa, Hugo Gonzalez and others would not be able to at least get to the foul line to stop a run.
Re-watching the game to write this feature on Spanish big man Aday Mara, it was very clear that De Larrea did not have the ball in his hands much in the fourth quarter that Conrad Martinez was dealing with the playmaking duties. Martinez has his fans - I am not really one of them I will admit, though he can shoot the ball - but I don’t think anyone would pick Martinez over De Larrea as the better playmaker. So, that was quite surprising.
Unless … and I am just going to throw this out there … you consider that by losing to Lithuania, Spain will finish second in Group B - at least if Lithuania beat Japan and Spain knock off Dominican Republic in action Tuesday. That actually will send Spain to the other side of the bracket from the United States, with a possible Semi-Final showdown with Australia from Group D in the last four while the B1 spot in the Competition System (shown above, if you can follow the errors ;-) ) could lead to a Semi-Finals match-up with C1 - ie the United States should they win the group and win the first two knockout games. Again, this is not(!) saying Spain voluntarily lost to Lithuania but rather just stating the fact that the hosts losing the game meant they would avoid United States until the final.
Spain remain in my eyes an absolute title contender and the loss to Lithuania doesn’t change anything. De Larrea is the most dynamic playmaker in the tournament. Almanza has been an absolute beast on the glass and Mara is at the moment the best big in the tournament - Rocco Zikarsky of Australia might overtake him soon but right now it’s the Spaniard. And Spain already showed that they can battle with the Americans - especially considering they most likely didn’t throw many of their main sets at the USA in case they meet up later.
France actually have been the most impressive team thus far in the tournament, turning on the jets and racing past Serbia in the opening game after oversleeping the opening bell and then completely overwhelming Canada. Serbia are a rock solid team, and Canada are usually a strong team but actually had less than two weeks of preparations - including a training camp that started with 20 players. Still, France committed only 10 turnovers against Serbia and shared the ball with 21 assists against Canada.
The aforementioned Pietrus has really taken on the task, scoring 11 and 13 points while compiling 5 assists and just 1 turnover in the two games. Pietrus is not needed to handle the playmaking duties the whole time and both Theo Pichard and Pacome Dadiet assumed those responsibilities as well against Serbia and Canada, respectively. Noah Penda, Killian Malwaya, Mohamed Diawara and Zaccharie Risarcher give head coach Bernard Faure so many options and weapons in the backcourt and wing while Alexandre Sarr has been the rock in the post for France, who yes, still remain a major title contender.
Biggest disappointments - Japan and Canada
Maybe I was blended by the glow of Yuto Kawashima and what he did at the FIBA U16 Asian Championship 2022 - where Japan finished second - but Japan have probably been my biggest disappointment thus far, getting beaten by Dominican Republic by 12 points and losing to Spain by 49 - though the loss to the hosts was not really a surprise. That being said, Japan are actually still on course to match my Power Rankings pick of 10 - as they can lose in the Round of 16, win in the 9-16 and 9-12 Classification and then lose and finish 10th. Japan will next take on Lithuania and that will be a tough fight before they most like will face France in the Round of 16. Still, my expectations were a bit higher for the Asian team.
Canada meanwhile has been quite underwhelming. They struggled early before finally turning things up against New Zealand but then looked quite bad against France. Canadian media members talked about being “outplayed” and “steamrolled” and the game being an “embarrassment”. A day off should be a good thing for Canada’s coaching staff to regroup and get the team on track. There is definitely talent on the Canada team, but can they get things corrected in time.
Undecided - Lithuania, Australia, Mali
Let’s call this group “Undecided” and start with Lithuania. The Baltic team upset Spain in the first game and then were dominant against Dominican Republic - winning by 48. For some reason I am not ready to put this team as a contender - maybe a challenger for a medal. Justas Stonkus, Petras Padegimas and Aleksas Bieliauskas have been strong leading the team but they are not there for me - yet. Sorry Lithuania fans. Not saying it won’t change.
Australia also have yet to really be convincing - struggling until the final 7-8 minutes against Poland and then rolling past an over-matched Egypt team. Argentina will be a good test for them before moving to the knockout round. Rocco Zikarsky has definitely graduated from U16 Asia superstar to U17 World Cup dominant big man with two double-doubles plus 8 blocks, while Joshua Dent has been great all-around (10.0ppg 8.5rpg 6.0apg). One mystery is Australia having only taken 15 three-pointers total in the first two games after averaging 21.7 three-point attempts in the FIBA U16 Asian Championship.
Mali meanwhile gets an undecided because I really haven’t been able to watch their games thus far - losing to Slovenia and then easing past Lebanon. It’s great for their long term that they have such a young roster - seven 2006-born players and a 2007-born talent, meaning they have eight players who can play at the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup in 2023 and 2025. People have been giving rave reviews thus far about Malick Diallo and Ladji Coulibaly. Mali is continuing their push at the youth level.
Player notes
Shortt, Hugo, Flagg, Nitu, Vide
Just wanted to take a couple minutes here and really mention a couple of players who have been fun to watch. I really didn’t have Will Shortt in my pool as players who would posterize 7-foot-6 Canadian giant Olivier Rioux. But he did. And Shortt threw down two more massive dunks in the game against Serbia. Mr. Double-T has been a real revelation for me - especially those jumps.
I knew a lot about Spain coming into the tournament but I will admit I really didn’t know much about Hugo Gonzalez - I have no problem saying it, it’s hard to know everybody. Man the 2006-born Real Madrid wing is a great talent. What a skill package. Can’t wait to see him down the road.
Cooper Flagg and Christian Nitu from USA and Canada, respectively, have been as good as advertised - at least by me, considering I had them as players 3 and 5 in my 20 Players to Watch article. Man oh man are both super fun to watch in their own right.
And just wanted to mention that Jan Vide is still my favorite to win the scoring title. The Real Madrid guard is clearly Slovenia’s main man and he is unabashed in terms of shooting the ball.
Other interesting tidbits
Gonzaga-Spain connection, Japanese internationals
In case you haven’t realized it … Gonzaga University’s director of basketball operations Jorge Sanz is Spain’s assistant coach to Spain head playcaller Zavier Zamora. Sanz was supposed to be Zamora’s assistant at the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2021 but he was in Spanish hospital battling tonsillitis and did not make it. It certainly seems like a great way for Gonzaga to recruit for their pipeline - or at least get first-hand looks at the top youngsters around the world.
Japan is working hard to push their game and they are definitely looking to mixed race players. Kei Rooney’s father is from New Zealand, Shawn Marion Williams’ father is from Ghana and Leon Watanbe’s father is from Australia - all three with Japanese mothers. And it’s uncertain if Patrick Shin Appeah’s father is from Ghana with Appeah being a common name in the African country.
Commentators
As someone who cares so much about this competition, I will admit that it kind of pains me how the organizers are handling the commentary of the games. Only some games are being called and a competition this important deserves to be either all or nothing - not random from a spectator’s point of view. Maybe there might be a commentator or maybe not. The action has been great through two days but unfortunately we don’t know if we will hear the teams roar after a big dunk or if there is a commentator raising their voice.
Well, those are my views of the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2022 through two days. Please, if you have any questions or comments, do not hesitate to ask.
Thanks to everybody here for this great discussion. Definitely think it's worth having and hearing your opinions on.
Never easy to figure out issues like this
In a PERFECT sports world, your system would be ideal. However, in the REAL world in which we
live, what you want will NEVER happen. Number one, who is going to pay for the TRAVEL costs???
You state: "What would have happened if Australia had played against European teams to qualifier. It might not have made it through." The Aussies might or might not qualify against European Teams in
your qualification system. Again, what happens IF the Australian Basketball Federation cannot or will
not pay for the travel costs of their boys & girls youth teams???
JonL, you did not address the POLITICAL aspect of my response. As for myself, I WISH we could to-
tally separate politics from sports. But again, that would require a perfect world which we do not have. ALL of the boys youth national teams that can actually WIN FIBA's 2022 U17 World Cup for Boys in Basketball are in Spain.
I will give you tomorrow's winners:
Round of 16 Qtrs. Semis
Winners
France eliminates Slovenia
1. France France SHOULD eliminate Spain
2. Slovenia
Spain eliminates Australia
3. Spain
4. Australia
/////////////////////////
Team USA eliminates Serbia
5. Serbia Team USA eliminates
Lithuania, Mali, or Poland
6. Team USA
7. Lithuania Lithuania SHOULD eliminate
Mali or Poland
8. Mali or Poland? - Toss Up.
If Team USA is ON and they play their game, they win easily, they might even blow France or Spain out, [20+]. If they have a slightly off game, they still win, but with less than 15 or even 10 points in hand. France or Spain have to play PERFECTLY to win, and that's a single digit win, [9 or less] MAYBE. If
either one of them has an off night, they will be ROADKILL.
Cooper FLAGG has emerged as our best defender. In fact, I think he's the best defender in the com- petition. Holland is a player that must be accounted for at all times. Koa Peat is just 15 and can return
in two years.
Today France had a +/- of 69 & a team eff. of 151 against NZ.
Team USA had a +/- of 48 & a team eff. of 151 against Mali.
That gives you some idea of the relative strength of each team.
Team USA will play Serbia [R16] and more than likely Lithuania [Qtr.] That
gives them two excellent opponents as tune up games for the final. France
or Spain are @ 100% capacity now. Team USA is @ about 75%.
We shall see.